The race for the Golden Ball hotting up - so which of the game's biggest stars are true contenders, and who are merely pretenders?
After a season headlined by him finally getting his hands on the World Cup, Lionel Messi took home his eighth Ballon d'Or after picking up the 2023 prize in Paris back in October. The footballing world has moved on, though, and now the heat is on as we gradually move towards knowing the identity of the 2024 winner.
As we enter the final stretch, it promises to be an intense race. Along with the usual ups and downs of the European domestic season, this is a campaign that will see the majority of the globe's best players take part in international tournaments, including the European Championship and Copa America this summer.
So after a year that was defined by the battle between Messi's tournament success for Argentina and Erling Haaland's season-long superiority at Manchester City, how much of a bearing on the 2024 Ballon d'Or race will those international competitions have? Meanwhile, could we see the first win from someone who plays their club football outside of Europe, as more and more of the game's biggest names head to up-and-coming leagues in other parts of the world?
20 Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) ↔️
In 2023-24: 17 goals, six assists. Won Leagues Cup.
Surely not number nine?! Messi became the first man playing outside Europe to win the Ballon d'Or in 2023, but he earned the prize for his performances while employed by Paris Saint-Germain. Could he now win a Golden Ball while playing exclusively on the other side of the Atlantic?
The odds are admittedly stacked against him. With the new MLS season having only just begun, Messi will not be able to win any meaningful domestic trophies during the voting period for the 2024 award.
However, if he can have Miami near the top of the Eastern Conference midway through the campaign and lead them into the latter stages of the CONCACAF Champions Cup (North America's Champions League), before then guiding Argentina to another trophy at the 2024 Copa America, then all bets might be off.
19 Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr) ↔️
In 2023-24: 38 goals, 14 assists.
Many presumed Ronaldo was done with the Ballon d'Or after he missed out on the 30-man shortlist for the first time since 2003 last year, but there was definitely a route for the five-time winner to force himself back into contention for 2024.
Whether that has now been closed off, however, remains to be seen. With Al-Nassr already well behind unbeaten leaders Al-Hilal at the top of the Saudi Pro League, their exit from the AFC Champions League at the quarter-final stage was a bitter blow to Ronaldo's slim Ballon d'Or hopes. And so while he continues to score goals at a remarkable rate, his chances of ending the campaign with silverware are dwindling.
That said, Portugal will be one of the favourites for Euro 2024 after a favourable group-stage draw, and with Ronaldo having re-established himself in the line-up under Roberto Martinez, he will be keen to impress in what is likely to be his major tournament swansong. If he can guide his country to another continental title, expect him to rocket up these rankings.
18 Rodrygo (Real Madrid) ↔️
In 2023-24: 16 goals, eight assists. Won Supercopa de Espana.
While he remains a key player for Madrid, Rodrygo's form fell off somewhat after a strong finish to 2023, and there is no doubt that others at Santiago Bernabeu dominate the headlines far more than the Brazilian winger.
However, if he can rediscover his scoring touch in the final weeks of the campaign, especially in the Champions League, before helping to lead his country to glory at the Copa America, then he could vault himself back into Ballon d'Or contention.
17 Lautaro Martinez (Inter) ⬇️
In 2023-24: 27 goals, six assists. Won Supercoppa Italiana.
If any moment summed up Lautaro Martinez's big-match struggles, it was his woeful penalty in Inter's shootout loss to Atletico Madrid that ended their hopes of reaching a second-successive Champions League final in the last 16.
The striker has been on a tear for the runaway leaders in Serie A this season and could yet be part of a victorious Argentina squad at the Copa America, but his failure to prove himself in the biggest occasions is likely to mean he finishes down the Ballon d'Or pecking order once again.
16 Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen) ⬆️
In 2023-24: 15 goals, 20 assists.
Bayer Leverkusen march on in the Bundesliga, and remain unbeaten in all competitions through 41 matches this season as Xabi Alonso's side now look destined to end Bayern Munich's stranglehold on the German title. They are also into the DFB-Pokal final and are one of the strongest sides left in the Europa League, and so ending the season with multiple trophies isn't out of the question.
Should that happen, Ballon d'Or voters will be keen to reward Alonso's most important players, and few - if any - are having better campaigns than Wirtz. The playmaker's form since recovering from a serious knee injury has been superb, and is likely to earn him a £100-million-plus move over the next 12 months or so, as well as a starting role for hosts Germany at Euro 2024.
15 Bernardo Silva (Manchester City) ⬇️
In 2023-24: 10 goals, eight assists. Won Club World Cup & UEFA Super Cup.
Bernardo tends to save his best performances for the biggest matches, and he should have plenty of those to showcase himself to the world in as Man City enter the run-in. Pep Guardiola's side are involved in a hotly-contested Premier League title race as well as pushing for back-to-back Champions League titles, with Bernardo having scored upon the competition's return for the knockout stages against FC Copenhagen.
Portugal, meanwhile, were superb in qualifying for Euro 2024, with Bernardo pulling the strings from midfield. If he can produce more of the same in Germany, he could find himself well in the Ballon d'Or race.
14 Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City) ⬆️
In 2023-24: Four goals, 14 assists.
De Bruyne even challenging for the Ballon d'Or after he missed the entire first half of the season due to injury might seem fanciful, but if anyone can force themselves into the reckoning, then it's the Man City midfielder.
The 32-year-old has looked in great form since returning in January, and figures to be a key player for a team who are in good shape to repeat their treble-winning campaign of 2022-23 if he can stay fit. He will also be the main figurehead for a Belgium team who, while unfancied to go all the way, have got a decent draw at the European Championships.
13 Declan Rice (Arsenal) ⬆️
In 2023-24: Six goals, seven assists.
Some eyebrows were raised when Arsenal forked out £105 million ($137m) to sign Rice from West Ham over the summer, but any doubts over the deal have quickly been erased thanks to the midfielder's superb campaign thus far.
Not only has the England international been key in shielding Mikel Arteta's defence, he has also scored some stunning goals, while in recent weeks he has added a new string to his bow by becoming a set-piece expert for a team that has become the Premier League's dead-ball specialists.
If Rice can help lead the Gunners to silverware this season before playing an important role for a successful England side at the Euros, then - like it or not - Ballon d'Or candidacy is a realistic proposition.
12 Julian Alvarez (Manchester City) ↔️
In 2023-24: 16 goals, 12 assists. Won Club World Cup & UEFA Super Cup.
The most-decorated player of the 2022-23 season after adding the World Cup to the treble he won with Man City, Alvarez has taken his game to a new level this campaign after becoming a regular starter for Pep Guardiola's side.
The Argentina striker is set to improve his goal and assist numbers from the last campaign, and another successful season for City, as well as a deep Copa America run with Argentina, could yet see him finish higher than the seventh-place he managed in 2023 Ballon d'Or voting.
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